Well, the housing statistics for Wheaton are in for March, and there are some notable statistics that jump out to me. Before we hit the numbers, I just want to reflect on what I am seeing in the market place.
The inventory is high, but not as high as last year, and units sold are down about 17%. What concerns me most is what may be looming out there vs. what is selling. Over 60% of all the homes sold in March were below the $300,000 price level. That shouldn’t be too much of a surprise as this is a value driven market. I was in a foreclosure and short sale certification class just the other day. A number that jumped out at me was that jumbo loans, those loans over $417,500, have an default increase of over 600% in the last six months. This is a huge swing from last year. In the last few years, the majority of defaults were from sub-prime loans and were priced at the bottom of the market. Now we are seeing the top of the market in pain, and it is a major concern. At the top of the market, we will see a downward trend in pricing, as more foreclosures hit the market. This means that every market below them will be pushed lower in pricing. If a home that normally sold at $1 million is now $750,000, then that house that sold at $700,000 will be pushed lower in order to sell, and so on…
I have lived in Wheaton almost my whole life, and it has always been a rock solid city from a financial standpoint. As I look at subdivisions that are priced over $1million, the tax records show that there are plenty of homes that have mortgages over that $1 million level as well. Most people in conversation tell me no way in Wheaton do you see those high end homeowners over-extended, but that is not what the data tells me. I am not saying that our market is going to crash down again, but instead is that I have a careful eye on the top of the market and need to stay on top of this issue and place my clients ahead of the market.
As I consult my clients, it is important for them to understand what is going on in the background that most people aren’t looking at, including realtors. It is extremely important to use data, hard facts, when pricing your home, etc. To sum up the market currently, it is a two horse race: a beauty pageant and a price war. You need to win both!
I am not down on the market nor am I negative about the market. I am realistic and use the data in consulting my clients to make good decisions about meeting their goals and needs.
OK, enough of that, here are some numbers from Wheaton Homes March 2011 v. March 2010:
Units Sold – Down 17.3% from last year (52 in 2010 v. 43 in 2011)
Number for sale last day of month – Down 3.8% from 2010
Median Price (sold) – $276,500 in 2010 v. $275,000 in 2011 (holding steady)
Median Price (for sale) – $324,900 in 2010 v. 309,900 in 2011
Price per square foot – $162 in 2010 v. $172 in 2011
Average days on market – 232 days in 2010 v. 223 days in 2011
Months supply of inventory – 11.1 months in 2010 v. 13.0 months in 2011
Quite honestly, I think the numbers aren’t too bad considering the economy. Keep in mind, that at this point in 2010 we had a significant stimulus in the housing market with the tax credit, which we don’t have currently. The biggest number that jumps out to me is the 13 month supply of inventory. That is a lot of inventory folks. A balance market should be between 3-6 months of inventory.
I love looking at the numbers and discussing you with of you. If you have any questions or comments, please share!
Also, if you are thinking of selling your home in Wheaton and are interviewing listings agents, please give me a call. I think you will find our honest, realistic approach very refreshing. Our marketing plan, which is pushing the envelope of today’s technology and in this non-traditional market, our non-traditional marketing plan has proven to sell your home at the top of what the market will give in much less time that the market averages.
To search for homes for sale in Wheaton, visit our site which breaks down Wheaton by price ranges.
Thank you for your time in reading, and give us a call for all your real estate needs.
Pete Economos
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